Trina Solar expects up to 4.6GW PV module shipment for FY15

It's an impressive shipment guidance.

China-based Trina Solar has reported a strong q-q increase in revenues and shipments
in 4Q14, but net profits were affected by higher (up 20% q-q) operating expenses and a USD7.6mn forex and derivatives impact.

According to a research note from Nomura, net revenues were USD705mn, up 14% q-q on higher shipment volumes in China, Europe and Asia. Meanwhile, operating expenses were up 19.9% q-q, at USD80.5mn, primarily due to an increase in employee expenses.

Trina recorded a net forex loss of USD7.6mn, compared with a loss of USD15.1mn in 3Q14, mainly due to depreciation of the euro and yen against the US dollar.

Further, Nomura noted that Trina’s shipment guidance for FY15F looks impressive, with a forecast for 4.4GW-4.6GW of PV modules, of which 700-800MW will be shipped to the company’s downstream projects.

Meanwhile, 1Q15F shipment guidance at 840MW-870MW is lower than expected, although the company expects the shipments to pick up later in the year.

Here's more from Nomura:

We still like Trina for its large capacity base, with one of the leading cost structures and a better balance sheet relative to peers. We are currently reviewing our estimates.

4Q14 earnings miss on forex; exciting FY15F shipment guidance - Trina reported 4Q14 revenues of USD705mn (up 14% q-q), driven mainly by higher shipments, at 1099MW (up 3.3% q-q), on increased demand from China, Europe and Asia.

Net profit was USD10.6mn (-7.6% q-q) mainly due to: 1) Higher operating expenses as employee expenses increased by 19.9% q-q; 2) forex loss of USD7.6mn compared with a loss of USD15.1mn
in 3Q14; and 3) lower tax expense of USD1.7mn compared with a tax expense of USD5.2mn in 3Q14.

Trina has guided to ship a total of 840-870MW in 1Q15F, of which 60-70MW will be shipped to its downstream PV projects; i.e., total shipments down 21~24% q-q. However, Trina has given impressive FY15F shipment guidance of 4.4~4.6GW, with 700~800MW for internal projects (FY14 total shipments ~3.66GW). We are reviewing our estimates.